Short-term forecasting of powdery mildew (Erysiphe necator) development and field resistance of table grape cultivars under the conditions of the Southern Steppe of Ukraine
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36495/2312-0614.2026.1.36-40Keywords:
рhytosanitary monitoring, mathematical modeling, sum of active temperatures, phenology, epiphytotic, climate changeAbstract
Goal. To develop methods for short-term forecasting of the seasonal development of powdery mildew on grapevine.
Methods. The research was conducted using correlation and regression analyses.
Results. A close correlation relationship (R² = 0.9956) was established between the sum of active temperatures (SAT) and the dynamics of development of the causative agent of powdery mildew (E. necator) under the conditions of the Southern Steppe of Ukraine. A mathematical model for forecasting epiphytotics was developed, which is described by the equation y = 0.276x – 9.0397, where y is the predicted level of disease spread, %; x is the sum of active air temperatures (above +10°C). Differentiation of cultivars by the level of field resistance was revealed: late-ripening cultivars (Italiya, Red Globe, Crimson Seedless) in 2025 experienced cluster infection up to 100%, whereas early cultivars (Black Magic, Cardinal) exhibited tolerance (12—16% infection) due to avoidance of massive infectious pressure. The high reliability of the short-term forecasting method for the appearance of primary infection was experimentally confirmed (error 2—4 days).
Conclusions. Under conditions of climate change, the tolerance of table grape cultivars to powdery mildew (E. necator) is determined predominantly by the phenological factor. The key mechanism is the avoidance of epiphytotics due to asynchrony between the critical phases of plant susceptibility and the peaks of pathogen development, which has a greater impact than genetic immunity. The proposed method for calculating the timing of primary infection makes it possible to move from calendar-based fixed treatments to targeted preventive protection. This ensures optimization of the number of fungicide treatments, reduction of pesticide load, and minimization of the risks of pathogen resistance formation. Practical implementation of the method contributes to the preservation of the marketable quality of the yield, especially in susceptible late-ripening cultivars, and increases the economic and ecological efficiency of the grapevine protection system.
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